La Niña Fizzles: What It Means for Hurricanes and the Weather in 2025
Meteorologists were bracing for La Niña—but it never fully showed up. After the record-breaking El Niño event ended in early 2024, scientists expected its cooler counterpart, La Niña, to follow. But what started as promising signs of a developing La Niña over the winter began to weaken—and by March, it was declared dead.
So, what went wrong? And what does this surprise twist mean for the upcoming summer and Atlantic hurricane season?
Understanding ENSO: The El Niño–La Niña Cycle
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural climate cycle driven by temperature shifts in the Pacific Ocean. When ocean waters warm (El Niño), it can dampen Atlantic hurricanes, shift rainfall, and affect jet streams. When those waters cool (La Niña), it often sparks more hurricanes and heightens wildfire risks in the western U.S.
Even small changes in ocean temperatures—just half a degree Celsius up or down—can significantly tilt global weather patterns. That’s why scientists keep a close eye on a narrow band of the Pacific near the equator to detect early ENSO signals.
“El Niño and La Niña impact everything from rainfall and temperature to hurricanes and even financial markets,” said Emily Becker, a research professor at the University of Miami and contributor to NOAA’s ENSO blog. “It gives us a rough idea of what to expect in the months ahead.”
Did La Niña Even Happen?
Although ocean temperatures briefly dipped below normal this past winter, they didn’t stay low long enough to meet the criteria for an official La Niña. By mid-April, NOAA confirmed that the event never fully developed.
Why not?
Climate experts point to weakened trade winds in the eastern Pacific—key drivers that help pull cooler water to the surface. Without that upwelling, the system couldn’t sustain a full La Niña.
But some scientists believe the story isn't over. As climate baselines shift due to global warming, what didn’t qualify as La Niña today might be reclassified in the future.
ENSO-Neutral: A Forecasting Wildcard
With neither El Niño nor La Niña dominating, we're in what's called an ENSO-neutral phase. That may sound harmless, but it actually makes forecasting trickier. These neutral periods lack the clear signals meteorologists rely on to predict seasonal trends.
“Without the push or pull of El Niño or La Niña, we rely more on weaker and less predictable factors,” explained James Done, a climate scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
Still, most forecasts agree: summer 2025 is likely to be hotter than normal, thanks in part to a steadily warming climate.
Hurricane Season Outlook: Neutral but Not Calm
Neutral ENSO conditions typically don’t suppress hurricanes like El Niño does, and with Atlantic ocean temperatures already warm, the conditions may be ripe for an active storm season.
“El Niño tends to increase vertical wind shear, which disrupts hurricanes,” said Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert at Colorado State University. “Without it, we’re expecting more favorable conditions for storm formation this year.”
Still, not all signals are flashing red. A brief cooling trend in the Atlantic earlier this year could temper storm activity—but as scientists caution, past patterns are becoming less reliable in our warming world.
“In 2023, we had El Niño, but storm activity was still higher than average,” Done noted. “So now the question is: have ocean temperatures warmed enough to overpower the usual suppressive effect of El Niño?”
Looking Ahead: What’s Next for ENSO?
According to NOAA’s April update, ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the summer and likely into October. While the odds of a La Niña increase toward late fall and winter, it’s too early to say for sure.
Forecasting during spring is especially tricky. “Spring is notoriously unpredictable for ENSO,” said former NOAA meteorologist Tom Di Liberto. “Things usually come into focus by June.”
Climate Change and ENSO’s Future
Scientists are still debating how global warming will ultimately reshape ENSO. While the basic mechanics of the system remain the same, rising ocean temperatures and shifting baselines could alter its strength, frequency, and impact.
For now, forecasters are watching closely—and bracing for a hurricane season that could defy expectations yet again.