Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025: Increased Risk of U.S. and Caribbean Landfalls

Forecasters are sounding the alarm for an active Atlantic hurricane season in 2025, with a higher-than-average chance of major storms making landfall in the U.S. and Caribbean.

In its first extended outlook released Thursday, Colorado State University (CSU) predicts:

• 17 named storms

• 9 hurricanes

• 4 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher, with winds of 111+ mph)

“We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes striking the continental U.S. and Caribbean,” said Dr. Phil Klotzbach, lead researcher at CSU.

Landfall Probabilities (Compared to Historical Averages):

• Entire U.S. coastline: 51% chance (average: 43%)

• U.S. East Coast (incl. Florida Peninsula): 26% (average: 21%)

• Gulf Coast: 33% (average: 27%)

• Caribbean: 56% (average: 47%)

Key Factors Behind the Forecast

• Warmer-than-normal Atlantic waters — though not as extreme as last year — provide ideal conditions for storm development.

• ENSO conditions are expected to remain neutral, but forecasters are closely watching for any shifts. Neutral or La Niña patterns typically reduce wind shear, which allows hurricanes to grow stronger.

“When the Atlantic is warm and there’s no El Niño to disrupt storms, the environment becomes much more favorable for hurricane activity,” Klotzbach explained.

While hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30, CSU’s forecast underscores the need for early preparedness — especially in high-risk coastal areas.